[Salon] A Kharkiv Encirclement As Dreamed Up By 'Sources'

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/05/kharkiv-incursion.html#more

A Kharkiv Encirclement As Dreamed Up By 'Sources'

Yesterday The Economist published about an alleged Russian plan to partially encircle Kharkiv:

Ukraine’s desperate struggle to defend Kharkiv (archived)

I find that this is unlikely to ever have been a Russian plan:

Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir. The operation was supposedly planned for May 15th-16th but was brought forward by nearly a week for unknown reasons.

According to the plans, the Russians had identified two axes of attack on either side of the reservoir. The push on the western axis was intended, over 72 hours, to bring Russian troops to within artillery range of Kharkiv city at the village of Borshchova. They were stopped by a rapidly redeployed grouping from the elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed them back a full 10km from their initial goal.
...
On the Vovchansk axis, further east, the Russian plan had been to fight past Anna’s father’s house on the reservoir, right down to the town of Pechenihy. The Russians initially made quick work of this operation, sweeping through an area that should have been prepared with minefields and serious engineering fortifications but wasn’t.

The piece includes this not very helpful map:

I have marked the LiveUAmap map of the Russian Kharkiv incursion with arrows from the border to the villages named in the Economist piece:

bigger

Borshchova is 15 kilometer (~10 miles) from the border.

The town of Pechenihy is west of the reservoir and the distance from the border is some 45 kilometer (~30 miles).

The whole Russian force used for the Kharkiv incursion is not larger than one division with some 12 to 15,000 men - most of them in back positions. Various videos from the operation show that the frontline forces mostly consist of infantry advancing on foot. There are only a few tanks, if any, and no large convoys of resupplies.

How such a forces would be supposed to do (within 72 hours) a five kilometer advance per day towards Borshchova or even a 15 kilometer advance per day towards Pechenihy is beyond me.

Such a move would require at least three divisions with a decent tank fist, absolute air superiority and highly mobile logistics. Given the prevalence of drones on both sides of the battlefield such an operation would certainly have incurred high losses for little but some tactical gain.

It would be totally untypical for the Russian force as it is currently fighting. Everything is done to avoid Russian losses. Artillery and air attacks are used to destroy the enemy. Only after that has happened will the infantry advance.

I do not know who made the plans the Economist published about. I do not know who 'retrieved' and 'shared' it. But I am pretty sure that neither has not involved anyone who is part of - or even near to - the Russian military.

It is disinformation with a likely purpose of demonstrating that the Russian forces are less capable than they really are:

"Look, they had such big plans but only achieved this little."

Do people still fall for such nonsense?

Posted by b on May 21, 2024 at 11:07 UTC | Permalink